I try not to discuss polls simply because it's too easy to fixate on favourable polls and then get caught ignoring bad polls.  Personally, I would find that embarrassing.

 April 16:

THAT EKOS POLL

Thursday, April 16, 2009, 05:24 PM

It's just out, and here's some of what it says:

Conservatives losing ground to Liberals: EKOS poll

Governing party's support dropping in Ontario, Quebec, survey suggests

Fortunes have shifted substantially for Stephen Harper's Conservatives since December, with Michael Ignatieff's Liberals enjoying an upsurge, says a new poll from EKOS released exclusively to CBC News.

What does it mean? It means keep doing what you're doing. It means tactics change, but strategies never do. It means keep working even harder. It means taking your opponent seriously, and never ever assuming they are going to screw up. Always assume they aren't going to make a mistake, but that you are going to make plenty.

Stephen Harper is a worthy opponent, Team Grit. And he ain't beat yet.

That said, I've read that Ekos poll about three times, now! Whoo-hoo!

October 12:

Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella, a campaign veteran who has been volunteering in Mr. Ignatieff's team, told The Hill Times last week that he's not worried about the polls, and an election campaign will be his party's opportunity to turn the ship around.

"What turns things around? The campaign. Campaigns matter. When the writ drops, we will get equivalency in media coverage. And Canadians will see we have a smart, impressive, honest leader. And they'll see we have the best team-and we'll be the only serious party with a serious platform. Until then, the phony war will continue, and no one south of the Queensway will pay any attention to the phoniness."

So let me get this straight. 

In April, with the polls showing Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals surging, the take-away was that the polls were telling the Liberals to continue steady as she goes, to "keep doing what you're doing".

In October, with the polls showing Michael Ignatieff in freefall, both in terms of party support as well as every indicator regarding Ignatieff's leadership abilities, the take-away was...the same? 

When the polls showed good Liberal numbers under the current plan, the poll was interpreted as confirmation that the current plan was a good one. 

But when the poll suggests that the current plan is failing, and failing miserably, then the poll means nothing, and the Liberals should stick to the current plan.

Good poll?  Cheer the poll as confirmation of "the plan".  Bad poll?  Don't worry about polls.

It suggests a certain infatuation with the plan, and a blind spot for polls that implicitly criticize the plan, but only those polls.

On the other hand, Warren Kinsella is an unpaid volunteer, and as we all know, you get what you pay for.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 09:20 AM | Comments (9) | Add Comment
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