December 31, 2005

The Income Trust Scandal: Incompetence

Paul Martin said a number of PMO people needed to know the details of the income trust taxation decision ahead of time.

I wondered just who really needed to know, since it seems like too many people knew.

On the question of who needed to know, a former PMO staffer got in touch with me with some insights:

Paul Martin is telling the truth, somewhat.

PMO coordinates two things: communications and policy. So Scott Reid would have needed to know, so that Goodale's press conference was not taking place at the same time as some other announcement. And the policy shop would have needed to know, so it did not contradict some overall government priority, etc. So those things are true.

But what he does not address is this: this was a matter of tax policy that had huge market implications. Those things are treated with budget-level secrecy. And, here, we know that was not the case -- junior staff were running around spouting off well before the press conference. Hell, John McKay went on TV to say what the tax policy was (and got it wrong)! It was madness.

We have the solid example from CTV of the call to CARP from Ralph Goodale's office that happened before the announcement.

Even if the leak was inadvertant, the whole thing was handled in a haphazard way. Which begs the question why should the Liberals be trusted with levers of government.

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December 30, 2005

What does "Need to know" mean?

When information is classified as "need to know", it means that you will be told the information if you require the information to do your job.

I used to work on military systems, and "need to know" had a very straightforward definition. Can you do your job without knowing that information? If the answer is "yes", you don't need to know.

I knew stuff my managers didn't know. I needed to know in order to write the software. They didn't need to know because they cared about schedules and all they needed to do their job was a progress report from me. It all made sense to us.

Paul Martin invoked that phrase when he explained why he was told of the decision not to tax income trusts well ahead of the announcement:

"I knew and I'm one of them. The fact is, that the people who would be on a need-to-know basis would have that information," said Martin.

I would be interested to know who in the PMO would need to know this piece of tax policy ahead of time, and why exactly? What part of their job could they not perform without having that knowledge well ahead of time?

Heck, why would Paul Martin need to know? I can't think of a reason, actually.

Maybe a speechwriter would need a heads up to help prepare a speech. But if you were serious about compartmentalizing the information to avoid these sorts of problems, you would simply have your speechwriter prepare two speeches -- one to explain why income trusts needed to be taxed, and one to announce that they would not.

The concept of "need to know" is really quite simple. What would you have done differently today had you known about the decision not to tax income trusts versus what you normally would have done?

If the only thing you can think of if that you would not have placed one or more phone calls to some friends of yours on Bay Street, then you really didn't need to know.

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Paul Martin: Can't say "No"

Now how hard is it to say, "No, I didn't do it"?

For Paul Martin, apparently he'll pull a muscle than answer with a simple "No".

more...

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The Income Trust Scandal: The Liberal Party website grinds to a halt

The Conservative Party website is headlining the Income Trust Scandal, focusing on the effect on the Liberal Party:

>>>Income Trust Scandal Rocks Liberals<<<

The NDP website is headlining the Income Trust Scandal, focusing on what the NDP sees as Ralph Goodale's imminent resignation:

>>>When will he step aside? Ralph watch: 2 days<<<

The Liberal Party website is headlining the Income Trust Scandal, focusing on Ralph Goodale's innate honesty:

>>> <*cough* *cough*><<<

Take two!

The Liberal Party website is headlining the Income Trust Scandal, focusing on the lack of solid evidence:

>>> <*cough* *cough*><<<

Take three!

The Liberal Party website is headlining the Income Trust Scandal, focusing on the way the opposition parties have blown this out of proportion:

>>> <*cough* *cough*><<<

OK, the Liberal Party website has remain completely unchanged. Frozen in time from December 24. Even Scott Feschuk's blog has not been updated in days.

Why does this matter? The party website is a means to get a message out without the selective filtering of the main stream media. On any major issue, and the Income Trust Scandal certainly counts, the party has to explain to its supporters (and to the curious visitor) their side of the story.

So what can we make of the fact that the Liberals are entirely silent via the website?

One possible reason is that the Liberals are keeping to the promise not to campaign through the Christmas break, and that includes updating the website. I don't buy it. First, Paul Martin has been electioneering in Montreal. Second, the scandal is just too important, especially to leave the Conservative and NDP attacks unanswered.

Perhaps a faction that believes that ignoring the problem means it will go away in a couple of days. I happen to think that strategy will fail, but besides my opinion, Paul Martin has been telling reporters that he stands by his minister, and Ralph Goodale has been saying there was no leak. If this faction was running the show, Paul Martin and Ralph Goodale would both be saying something along the lines that no comment should be made until the RCMP delivers its findings.

I think this silence reflects the confusion within the Liberal Party itself. At the highest levels, or so it is rumoured, the strategists are at odds about what to do. What to do about Goodale. What to do about the press. What do to about the opposition.

What to do about a campaign that seems to have come apart at the seams.

Until they can decide on a strategy and can craft a message, the Liberals will have no message to deliver. That leaves the field open to the Conservatives and the NDP to frame the debate. In the meantime, I will continue to watch the website. When it updates, it will be the first clue, and perhaps the best clue, to tell us who is running the show now.

In the meantime, the lack of official reaction does not reflect well on the ability of Paul Martin's Liberals to lead in a crisis.

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A mid-winter thaw that could lead to a flood

Look at the regional breakdown in the SES CPAC nightly polling numbers from December 28 to December 29, the time period over which the Income Trust Scandal blew wide open:

Atlantic Canada: The Liberals drop stay steady at 42, while the Conservatives poll into a tie, going from 37 to 42, picking up support at the expense of the NDP, who went from 17 to 13. Undecided went up from 17 to 19, suggesting a lot of folks are reconsidering their support, which can only be good news for the Conservatives under the circumstances.

Quebec: The BQ maintains a lock at 53, while Liberals jitter at 30 to 31 points support. Frankly, it's hard to imagine the numbers getting any worse for the Liberals in Quebec.

Ontario: The Liberals drop from 46 to 44, while the Conservatives move up from 35 to 37, and the NDP from 14 to 15. Definite motion in the right direction for the Conservatives.

Western Canada: The Liberals tumble from 34 to 29, and the Conservatives continue to pull away, moving from 43 to 47.

And the leadership indicators, which before this week was where the Liberals maintained a constant lead. Not anymore:

Trust: Martin plummets from 25 to 15, Harper moves slightly from 19 to 20, and undecided leaps from 12 to 16, suggesting an opportunity to change minds.

Competence: Martin actually has a bit of good news, moving from 25 to 27, but Harper gains more, from 18 to 21, which is interesting since there is no way to judge Harper's competence as PM.

Vision: Another massive hit for Martin, losing one third of his strength here, going from 30 to 20. Like before, Harper stays essentially unchanged (23 to 24) while undecided jumps from 15 to 21. Another group of people taking a serious second look at their preconceptions.

Leadership Index Score: This is an overall measure, asking the respondent to consider who would be the best PM, and it suggests that Paul Martin has a serious problem. His score crashes from 80 to 62, while Stephen Harper continues to climb slowly but surely, going from 60 to 65.

Harper actually beats Martin when an overall perception of leadership is measured.

The various polls for support seem to have been stuck since the beginning of the campaign. What we haven't noticed is that a combination of a positive issues-oriented Conservative campaign combined with a negative and reactive Liberal campaign marked with gaffes and now a huge scandal have acted on Canadians to thaw attitudes that have been frozen for years.

My understanding is that a thaw, especially a precipitous one, can lead to a flood. Or so I've heard.

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Now it gets vicious

The Conservatives roar up the polls.

See Bourque for the latest:


click to englarge

So what does this mean? My prediction is that the hard-core will take over the Liberal war room. Voices of moderation, undermined by yet another ethics scandal, will fade into the background, or leave the organization altogether.

The hard-core will argue that if the attack had started already, the Liberals wouldn't be in this pickle. It doesn't make sense, but then there will be no one left to argue with them. Given free rein to win this election at any cost, we can expect things not just to get nasty, which everyone expected, but downright vicious.

Besides the obvious targets, the Conservatives and the NDP (and their friends and family), expect the media to feel the pressure. Behind the scenes probably, with editors getting calls warning them of dire consequences for access after the Liberals win in January if they don't play ball right now.

Bloggers, too, might have to worry. Given that blogging is new, it's hard to say what the Liberals will do. There are some obvious targets, like Warren Kinsella, but the rest of us have no access with which to form a credible threat. Perhaps they are planning punitive legislation to gag bloggers to be introduced after the Liberals win?

But I could be wrong.

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Two types of traders

I wonder if we'll find out that there are two types of traders at the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The first group will demand that TSX CEO Richard Nesbitt resign until such time as the questions surrounding his suspicious purchase of thousands of income trust fund units just before the Goodale announcement are resolved.

The second group will insist that no investigation is necessary, that there's nothing to see here, and we should just carry on with our business as before.

It's the second group we should be looking at.

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The Income Trust Scandal: Changes in the Liberal war room?

More inside dirt at Bourque about the tremors being felt within the highest levels of the Liberal Party election team in the wake of the Income Trust Scandal bombshell:

According to insiders well-placed to understand the nuances within Martin's braintrust, Bourque has also learned that key campaign personnel are at risk of being replaced in an increasingly desperate attempt to maintain control of the public agenda, and more importantly, the key messaging that is driving this election.

Uh-oh. Desperation? Replacements? Need for new messaging?

The message is crafted by the Communications Director, in this case, Scott Reid.

You remember Scott Reid? He got reamed for suggesting on national television that Canadian parents can't be trusted with money to spend on childcare because they were likely to spend it on beer and popcorn.

He hasn't been heard from since.

And now the Income Trust grenade and a need to "maintain control of the...key messaging."

If I was Scott Reid, I'd be worried.

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The Income Trust Scandal: The Mounties should start by asking Paul Martin some questions

In the case of the Income Trust Scandal, the focus has been on Ralph Goodale and his office.

Senior Ottawa Liberals are telling me the focus is misplaced.

First, check out these quotes captured from the CTV newscast tonight at M K Braaten:

  • Don Drummond, VP/Chief Economist: CTV said that Drummond told them he first heard about the announcement via email, 4 hours in advance of announcement. Also, stated that Liberal strategists in Ottawa were the source of email. CTV quoted Drummond as saying "Alot of people seemed to know there was an announcement coming and a few people seemed to know what it was."
  • Jim Leech, Teachers pension fund - CTV said that Leech received emails at about 2 pm stating that the announcement was guaranteed. CTV Quoted Leech "I got a bunch of emails around 2pm saying for sure Goodale was making an announcement after the close."
  • Sandy Mcintyre, Sentry Select Capital: CTV reported he sent the following email: "There is a strong rumor out of Ottwa that Goodale is going to pronounce after the close today his trust solution…hope my sources are right!" Mcintyre said his sources were quoting 'well connected Liberals'.

Note that the source is ill-defined. Just well-connected Liberals.

Not well-connected finance ministry officials.

Just well-connected Liberals.

Recall that Ralph Goodale's original plan was to announce the decision in January. Suddenly the timeline was moved up. By Ralph Goodale?

Mr. Goodale said in September that the government would consult with a variety of industry and stock market players before announcing any policy change. Industry observers immediately began speculating that the government might consider reducing taxes on corporate dividends as a way of levelling the playing field with income trusts.

On Tuesday, Nov. 22, Mr. Goodale indicated that he would provide direction on the income trust issue because of the impending collapse of the government, effectively ending the consultation process. That night, department officials began discussing the possibility of taxing income trust, sources have said.

The next day, Mr. Goodale's office confirmed that he would be making an announcement and just moments before his scheduled news conference, his parliamentary secretary, Toronto MP John McKay, gave a television interview suggesting the government planned to levy a modest tax on income trusts. Shortly after 5 p.m., Mr. Goodale said there would be no tax on income trusts and that dividend tax credits would be increased starting in 2006.

Pat Breton, a spokesman for Mr. Goodale, said yesterday that Finance officials met on the night of Nov. 22 for two or three hours and came up with the plan that became the next day's announcement on income trusts. He also said that the Prime Minister's Office was told after that Nov. 22 meeting — either later that night, or the next day — about the decision. The policy development was “entirely an internal Finance” effort, he added.

However the media is reporting today that the focus is starting to shift (via Bourque):

Aides to the Prime Minister were told about a taxation change for income trusts "some time immediately before" Mr. Goodale made the announcement after markets had closed on Nov. 23, Pat Breton, a spokesman for Mr. Goodale, said yesterday.

While it is not unusual for the PMO to be informed of high-profile policy announcements, this indicates that the list of officials who had advance knowledge of the pending change went beyond the Finance Department and Mr. Goodale's office.

Well, I know some well-connected Liberals as well, and they've let me know what really happened. As reported in the Globe and Mail, Paul Martin's aides are insisting that Paul Martin was told "some time immediately before" November 23.

It's getting closer to the truth, but still not quite there. It has the date wrong. It also has the direction of the decision-making reversed.

The decision to close of the consultations and deliver the good news not to tax income trusts, probably in response to an election campaign that imminent, was made not by Ralph Goodale, who by all accounts is too honest to be making decisions like this based on election calculations, and who intended to stick to his timetable of accepting submissions on tax policy until December 31. It was not an entirely internal effort, as spokesperson Pat Breton insists. The major decisions were being taken outside of the finance department.

The decision was made by Paul Martin himself.

Paul Martin told Ralph Goodale on Friday, November 18 to bring the consultations to a close and to make an announcement on income tax trusts.

Paul Martin and his immediate PMO staff would have known for five days prior to the announcement how the decision was shaping up.

Paul Martin and his staff were dictating the pace of the work, and possibly the decision itself.

Paul Martin and his immediate PMO staff are as likely suspects as the source for the leak as Ralph Goodale and his office.

When Ralph Goodale stresses that Paul Martin knew nothing, you know he's trying a bit too hard to deflect attention from where the attention should be.

When I read about John McKay's flub on November 23, I wonder whether the finance department was really in the loop. It helps explain McKay's confusion if the PMO was more deeply involved in the decision making.

Where you see Paul Martin standing by Ralph Goodale, I see Paul Martin standing behind Ralph Goodale, keeping him up front and centre not out of a commitment to his minister and a firm belief in his basic honesty and his innocence, but in order to have a shield to hide behind.

Paul Martin made the call on Friday, November 18, not Ralph Goodale on November 22...that's the way it happened, or so well-connected Liberals are telling me.

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December 29, 2005

The Income Trust Scandal: But I've got a string tied around my finger

Some Liberals believe they can ride out the scandal caused by the announcement of the RCMP investigating a potential leak from Finance Minister Ralph Goodale's office to select traders willing to use inside information to turn a quick profit.

The reason? Christmas:

Liberals believe the fact that the criminal investigation was revealed in the dead zone between Christmas and New Year's Day, when few voters were paying attention, will save their electoral bacon.

"There is a God after all,'' chuckled one Liberal MP.

I know this unnamed MP was joking, but if any spiritual being has a hand in guiding the Liberal Party, I'd be willing to bet it isn't God.

But does he have a point about the timing? Is three days the shelf life of a scandal?

We'll all know next week, but I can tell you this. I've been in constant contact with a major Canadian on-air media personality with regards to the Income Trust Scandal, well before the events of this week. This person told me during one of our talks that if the main stream media has remained focused on this story during the lull between November 23 and this week, it was largely because the Canadian blogosphere would not let this story go.

Bloggers kept up the pressure, kept revealing new elements of the story, kept identifying new trusts with weird trading patterns, kept finding new links between particular funds and the Paul Martin Liberals.

Christmas comes and goes, but the bloggers are still here.

So I'll tie a string around my finger to remind me about the scandal. Hopefully next week, I won't have been distracted by bright shiny Liberal promises to spend my money wisely on my behalf.

And if bloggers are the string around the finger of the main stream media, then they won't have forgotten about the income trust scandal next week either.

For now, though, some main stream media journalists are doing an amazing job on this story.

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This sounds fishy

No really. It's fishy. Like it's about fish.

Oh, and a half-million dollars handed to a Liberal Party lawyer for a non-competitive contract. That's not allowed by the rules, unless the situation is one of "extreme urgency".

What was so urgent? Apparently some salmon went missing, and there was no time to lose in researching the best bid. Indeed, the delivery of the money to this Liberal buddy took two hours days weeks months.

Two months? Extreme urgency? Salmon?

I told you it sounded fishy. Read the whole thing.

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Conservatives continue the positive campaign of personal responsibility

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives continue to reveal policy after policy, holding the title of the Party of Ideas and Personal Responsibility:

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper today did what he admitted was a rarity for him — jumping off a city bus before announcing a plan to give transit riders a tax break.

Mr. Harper said his proposal would save the average Canadian transit user $153 a year. He said that should be enough to ease traffic congestion and pollution by moving people from their cars and onto buses, subway cars and commuter trains.

Harper's plan would allow holders of monthly transit passes to claim a 16-per-cent tax credit. Parents would also be able to claim the credit on behalf of dependent children.

The party decided to target monthly pass holders because it makes the credit easier to administer, he said.

"The idea here is to get people to shift to regular transit usage, particularly for transport to-and-from work or to-and-from education," said Mr. Harper, who acknowledged he hasn't taken public transit to work since he was a private citizen years ago in Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary.

So if you buy the odd ticket for the odd trip, you don't save. The plan is to encourage people to buy passes, which means that the person is encouraged to use transit in order to maximize the value earned from owning the pass in the first place.

Clever.

The standard approach is to hand over a big chuck of money to the transit authority, or maybe to the city and then to the transit authority, or maybe to the province which gives it to the city which gives it to the transit authority. One or more layers of bureaucracy leach away at the money.

And money to special interest groups, the Friends-of-Mass-Transit crowd, who will use the money to "encourage" mass transit, usually by using the money to fund lobbying for government decisions designed to make life more miserable for motorists.

For instance, in 2004, the Liberals handed the Canadian Urban Transit Association in Toronto almost $400,000. This is a transfer, not a contract for specific services, which means they are not subject to audits. And what do we get for $400,000? Well, this issue paper, for example, encouraging the government to raise gasoline taxes even higher, implement road tolls, use zoning to eliminate parking spaces, all "directed at creating a general understanding and acceptance of the importance of public transit among the people who won't use it."

In case you were wondering, the Canadian Automobile Association received no money from the government according to the 2003-2004 Public Accounts of Canada -- Transfer Payments. Its activities representing the interests of drivers were paid for entirely by drivers.

I feel a hankering for beer and popcorn coming over me. Oh save me, CUTA, for my own willfull blindess, even though there is no rapid transit between my house and my job that will take less than two hours for a one way trip. Will that earn me a break for high gasoline taxes, since I don't have a choice but to drive? Hell no. Instead, the Liberal government is handing my tax dollars over to CUTA so that CUTA can encourage the Liberal government to raise my taxes until I give up in desperation.

Again, the Conservative approach is to hand money, or in this case, the tax credit, directly to the individual citizen. We get to weigh the pros and cons of personal versus private transit on an individual basis, and make a decision whether to take advantage of the program.

The cost of the program grows or shrinks based on its popularity, but never costs more than exactly what it costs to run and fund it. No waste.

No middleman eager to pad his expense account with my money.

It's a direct contract between you, the taxpayer, and the government you've elected. Unelected and elitist organizations like CUTA and other organizations shouldn't be speaking on your behalf. They should speak on behalf of their members only, the various transit authorities that pay for CUTA's research and training services.

For those who make a living by finding ways to get government money and spending it on our behalf, this sort of thing must be infuriating.

Update: I've changed the post from "personal empowerment" to "personal responsibility". My readers have convinced me that it better captures the tone of the Conservative platform.

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The Income Trust Scandal: Paul Martin speaks

From the Globe and Mail:

Prime Minister Paul Martin said today Finance Minister Ralph Goodale will not resign because of the RCMP decision Wednesday to launch a criminal investigation into whether advance notice of Ottawa's plans for income trusts leaked from the federal Liberal government.

"He is a person of the greatest integrity, and he will not be stepping down," Mr. Martin said during a campaign photo op this morning.

I guess Goodale goes into the Scott Reid bucket of "keepers" and not the Mike Klander bucket of "losers".

Of course, from a purely partisan point of view, this is great news. The longer Ralph Goodale remains minister, the longer will the Conservatives, the NDP, the Bloc, and the media have a specific identifiable target for discussing the Income Trust Scandal.

You can't underestimate the value of putting a face on a story.

Of course, now we have a Paul Martin soundbite to go along with it, one that will get repeated in an ironic way if and when Ralph Goodale resigns:

"I have full confidence in Ralph Goodale. I believe that an investigation — as does he — will clear the air, including the allegation as to whether or not a leak actually took place."

Is Paul Martin going to go to the mat for Ralph Goodale. My gut says no, but I could be wrong. Clearly, Paul Martin is being supportive right now. But that might have less to do with confidence in Ralph Goodale and more to do with Paul Martin's penchant for dithering. He might be waiting for a poll to help guide his actions.

Still, Paul Martin has staked out a position. If the Income Trust Scandal story goes south for the Liberals, Paul Martin will pay a price if he's forced to change direction. He might come to regret not cauterizing the Goodale gash as soon as it happened.

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Support a winning Liberal Party campaign! Give us your beer and popcorn money!

The email I just received from the Liberal Party, with highlighting from the original:

Support a Winning Campaign!

The calendar year is coming to an end, but the election campaign is just getting started!

We want to thank you for your support to date and invite you to take advantage of a great tax credit opportunity.

December 31st is your last chance to donate to the Liberal Party of Canada for the 2005 tax year. Calculate your tax credit via our handy Tax Credit Calculator.

In order to ensure liberal values prevail through this hard fought election campaign, we will need to make every dollar count. Your donation is not only eligible for an exceptional tax credit, but will make a significant difference in the final three weeks leading up to Election Day.

We are only halfway through the campaign. We need your help before the clock strikes midnight on December 31st. Please give generously. And thanks!

Your Liberal Campaign Team

To my Liberal Campaign Team:

Gee, I'd like to give, but I spent all my disposable income on beer and popcorn. Because, as you know, I'm too stupid to know how to spend my own money.

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Tipping points

From a poll on December 23, before Klander's Slander and the Income Trust Scandal bombshell:

For the first time since the federal election began, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has edged out Prime Minister Paul Martin on issues of leadership that are being tracked daily by a national public-opinion polling firm.

The poll also found Harper leading on the issue of vision for Canada at 25 points and Martin at 20. The prime minister edges out Harper on competence 27 to 23.

The overall leadership index score now has Harper in front with 71 points and Martin with 64 -- the first time the Conservative leader has scored higher than Martin since the SES-CPAC survey began on Dec. 1.

SES's Nik Nanos said Harper started the campaign 23 to 24 points behind Martin on the index.

Remember how the Liberals thought a long campaign would work in their favour. So far, not so good.

Of course, things could change.

And things have changed in the six days since this poll was taken.

Since then, Mike Klander insulted, well, just about everyone via his blog and was forced to resign.

Since then, the Conservatives unveiled a plan to give veterans, including aboriginal veterans, respect and support. This story got a lot of positive media attention.

Since then, the Liberals got a lot of attention as well, but not the positive kind. At the top of every newscast and headlining every newspaper is news that the Mounties are looking into allegations that someone inside of Ralph Goodale's office illegally leaked information about income trust taxation and allowed key traders to profit handsomely. All eyes are on Goodale, waiting for the resignation announcement.

A lot has happened in six days -- the six days when the campaign was supposed to go dormant for Christmas. Has the campaign tipped? Are this week's events just going to add to the momentum measured last week? When the campaign revs up, will the direction become apparent?

And if the Conservatives are starting to pull away, will Canadians ignore the Liberal call for an all out panic? The indications are that it won't work this time:

The survey also shows the Conservative leader closing in on Martin when Canadians are asked who would make the best prime minister. On that front, Martin leads by just three points at 28% to Harper's 25%.

Nanos said so far Harper seems more engaged and relaxed, improving his image, a vulnerability for the Tory leader when the campaign began.

"So, it's not surprising that the Liberals are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at them," said Nanos. "The Liberals still haven't found anything that will stick to Harper. The bogeyman argument, right now, doesn't have traction."

This will be an election for the history books.

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The Income Trust Scandal: Election timing

Bet the Liberals and their supporters are furious at Jack Layton and the NDP for supporting Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party decision to hold an election now.

Remember, if we had followed the Liberal timetable, the election wouldn't have started for another couple of months, assuming Jean Chretien didn't succeed in getting the second Gomery Report delayed with his appeal to federal court. As it turns out, the Income Trust Scandal has exploded in the middle of the campaign, instead of being old news.

With that sort of fury gnawing at them, I wonder how difficult it is going to be for the Liberals put on a false smile and try to appeal to the NDP to support them against the Conservatives. And with the massive gash and uncontrolled hemorrhaging being suffered by the Liberals from the Income Trust Scandal blowing open, on top of Klander's slander and "beer and popcorn", how many NDP voters are reconsidering whether a vote for the Liberals is a strategic vote or a wasted one.

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The Income Trust Scandal: Paul Martin must resign!

From the Conservative Party website:

“The Finance Minister has no choice but to tender his resignation,” said Conservative Finance Critic Monte Solberg. “This investigation confirms that there are reasonable grounds to suspect criminal wrongdoing in his department or office, and as minister he must accept responsibly. That’s how our system works.”

Solberg pointed out that the Conservative Party has consistently raised serious concerns about suspicious trading patterns of certain income trusts in the hours preceding his November 23rd policy announcement.

“Why has Mr. Goodale refused to take seriously the compelling evidence of a government leak that ended up benefiting privileged insiders?” Mr. Solberg asked. “Now basic principles of public ethics and ministerial responsibility require that he do the honourable thing and resign.”

Now read it again, with a few substitutions and additions here or there:

“The Finance Minister Prime Minister has no choice but to tender his resignation,” said Conservative Finance Critic Monte Solberg anyone with a brain. “This investigation confirms that there are reasonable grounds to suspect criminal wrongdoing in his department or office, and as minister in charge of Quebec under Jean Chretien as well as finance minister he must accept responsibly for exercising no oversight over $350 million in public funds. That’s how our system works.”

Solberg Any person with even a shred of intelligence pointed out that the Conservative Party has consistently raised serious concerns about suspicious trading patterns of certain income trusts in the hours preceding his November 23rd policy announcement the allocation of contracts to advertising firms in Quebec and about the official response to the conclusions of the Gomery Inquiry.

“Why has Mr. Goodale Mr. Martin refused to take seriously the compelling evidence of a conclusion of an inquiry confirming government leak manipulation of contracts that ended up benefiting privileged insiders Quebec advertising firms, and ultimately the Liberal Party itself?” Mr. Solberg every person giving this story only a few miniutes consideration asked. “Now basic principles of public ethics and ministerial responsibility require that he do the honourable thing and resign.”

Really, I'm not sure what the difference is. Ain't going to happen, of course.

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The Income Trust Scandal: An easy prediction

Remember what I said about Ralph Goodale keeping his job? That it wasn't really up to him?

Even as we speak, Liberal Blackberries are alight. Many, I am certain, are carrying messages considering the consequences of cutting Ralph Goodale loose.

Cutting him from his privileges and responsibilites as Minister of Finance.

Maybe even cutting him out of the party altogether. Long odds for that one, I think.

But Ralph Goodale's future is not going to be determined by the RCMP, the OSC, or even by Ralph Goodale. It will be determined by Scott Reid, John Duffy, Cyrus Reporter, and others in the Liberal war room. These unelected lobbyists advising Paul Martin are interested in only one thing -- how to get the Liberals back in power and thus preserve their conduits to government influence and cash. If Ralph Goodale's troubles get in the way, he'll be out.

Bourque is carrying news that Goodale is likely to get the boot:

Bourque has learned that embattled Finance Minister Ralph Goodale is being pressured to give up his Cabinet seat for an indeterminate period of time, this in light of devastating news first revealed to the nation here yesterday that the RCMP has launched a criminal investigation into leaks from his department regarding rulings relating to the growing income trust scandal. According to senior sources inside the Paul Martin Liberal Party who spoke on condition of anonymity, "the official party posture is that Ralph didn't know anything and therefore shouldn't have to resign, but the public perception is devastating, it's killing us, and we need to move firmly to squelch the stink." Incredibly, Prime Minister Paul Martin has refused to comment publicly on news of the RCMP criminal probe, though it is understood that he has had a few choice words with key staff about this file.

Any guesses about what those choice words were?

Here are some ideas:

  • "Do what needs to be done!"
  • "All I'm saying is that we don't need this right now. That's all I'm saying."
  • "Let me be perfectly clear..." [followed by an extended silence]
  • "Boy, am I lucky they never caught on to any of my leaks when I was in charge of finance!"
  • "Scott, what do I think? What should my opinion be on this? Where's the latest poll?!"
  • "Will someone go tell Ralph to stop knocking on the door? Tell him we'll call him in when we're ready to tell him what his decision is going to be. Now read that part back about 'After careful consideration of my role as finance minister...' "
  • "What a miserable and weary day. It would do well for a smile to cross my royal visage. Call the court jester! Call Feschuk!"
  • "Ralph #%&@ Goodale! "

Posted by: Steve Janke at 10:08 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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Update to the boiled dog's head comment

[CTV is now carrying this story, including the issue of the Chinese origins of the phrase.]

When BC Liberal Party President Jamie Elmhirst quoted Industry Minister David Emerson describing NDP Jack Layton, Elmhirst reported a very colourful turn of phrase:

Jack Layton had a great weekend in BC. First he managed to find something nice to say about Svend Robinson, although the performance struck me as a touch insincere, even for Jack Layton. How did Minister Emerson describe his style at our Convention dinner? Oh yes, he said that Jack Layton had a boiled dog's head smile. That would have made even me wince if I hadn't have been laughing so hard.

I thought he was being evocative with his imagery, and dismissed it. I was wrong. The phrase has much more meaning than what I expected.

Apparently the phrase is Chinese:

Saap Sook Gao Tao - boiled dog head - when you really happy and showing all your teeth all the time, you look like a dog head that's been boiled

But more interestingly, the phrase might also be rude, as opposed to being very descriptive.

During the Cultural Revolution, the phrase "rotten dog's head" (zalan goutou) became a popular insult.

But "boiled dog's head"? I found a reference that suggests it is an insult:

To the officer that was smiling at RPCNs for their disturbed look : "Your smile very ugly, like sup-suk-gao-tao (boiled dog head)."

And then that led me over to rabble.ca:

It's not just a Chinese saying, it's an extremely rude Chinese saying, and Emerson probably knew that, as his wife is Chinese.

She is Chinese:

David is married to Theresa Yeuk-Si Tang. Theresa came to Canada from Hong Kong in 1972 and worked for 15 years in the financial services industry.

I can't find independent evidence about how severe an insult this is. But if it is a base and vile insult in Chinese, and Emerson knew that, I might be convinced to reconsider what the right response to Emerson's comments about Layton is.

At least an apology. Maybe more. And maybe the people in the Chinese community would have an opinion about the sort of vile humour (if indeed it is that vile) is being lobbed about Liberal ministers.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 01:01 AM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
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The Income Trust Scandal: The twisted logic of a true believer

From Liberal for Life:

I want Jack Layton to step down while the RCMP investigates his moustache
Wednesday, December 28, 2005

That's about as stupid an idea as asking Ralph Goodale to step down while the income trust affair is being investigated. Of course that's the way the opposition likes to do things, Guilty until proven innocent.

I should call up the RCMP under the false name Miguel Sanchez and tell them Stephen Harper and Monte Solberg have been running drugs for years. Then by their own logic they'd be forced to step down while the investigation takes place.

Please Canadians: buy a clue and vote the Liberals back to majority!

If after a review of the allegations, the Mounties found enough evidence to justify an official investigation of either Jack Layton's moustache, or of the drug running activities of Stephen Harper or Monte Solberg, then they should step down.

Duh.

But a review would conclude quickly that any such allegation is nonsense, and no investigation would be initiated. Unless it was an investigation of criminal mischief by Mr Sanchez.

The review of the income trust situation came to a very different conclusion.

It's not about the determination of guilt, or the presumption of innocence. The court of law provides for those. It's about earning, retaining, and protecting the public trust. Protecting the public trust even at the expense of your job.

Normally, I ignore the sort of non-thinking exhibited by Liberal for Life. But the announcement of an RCMP investigation is yet another blow to the Liberal campaign, and perhaps the biggest one so far. It's hard to imagine it getting any worse.

How does something like this affect the "true believer"? Someone who is an uncritical supporter, utterly unable to imagine the Liberal Party doing anything wrong, without it being a setup or a conspiracy, or blown out of proportion, or already fixed and thus a distraction from the "important" issues.

Well, we've just seen an example. It's not pretty.

For the more critical Liberal supporter, the response is more reasoned and more gloomy:

On The Bright Side...

...no one's going to be talking about Klander much.

This is HUGE. Martin will use the "can't comment on an RCMP investigation" line and I doubt we'll find out much else before voting day, but the mere fact that Goodale's office is being ivestigated [sic] is a massive blow to the Liberals. It's also an absolutely golden way for Harper to switch to "Phase 2" and the corruption issue which I've always assumed was his intention for the second half of the campaign.

That makes a lot more sense. Of course, the Liberal Party is better served, in the long term, by members of the second sort instead of the first. While the first can always be counted on for a donation and a vote, the second can be counted on for honesty.

If the Liberal Party is going to survive this unending stream of scandals and gaffes, they are going to have to find a way to fill their collective reserve of honesty, which seems to have gone dry quite some time ago.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 12:03 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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