If columnist John Ibbitson is right, the problem for the Liberals, who have been hit yet again with a miserable polling report, is not that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is fantastically popular, but the Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff is terribly unpopular.

So if I was a Liberal, I would be wondering why Liberals aren't fixing the real problem.

Yet again, the Liberals are looking at miserable polling numbers:

A new Strategic Counsel/Globe and Mail/CTV poll puts the federal Conservatives within range of a majority government, with 41 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberal Party, a yawning, 13-point gap.

Mr. Harper and his Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals among voters regardless of age or education, among both men (46 per cent to 28 per cent) and women (36 per cent to 28 per cent), and in every income level except for those with a household income of less than $50,000 a year.

But in his analysis, John Ibbitson says the problem is Michael Ignatieff:

Voters are not rewarding Mr. Harper. They are deepening their funk with Michael Ignatieff, who has seen his support steadily decline since last May.

Others have suggested the same thing to varying degrees, though it is not universally agreed upon, to be sure.  That so many people hold this view, though, is remarkable, because it is a truism in Canadian politics that it is the government that defeats itself, not the opposition.  But in this case, the opposition is taking a pummeling because of their own leader, crypto-conservative Michael Ignatieff.

So it stands to reason that there is a sizable contingent of Liberals, both in the Liberal caucus and across the party in general, that agree with this as well, and that is that Stephen Harper is winning because Michael Ignatieff is losing.

And it might be too late to do much about it.  If the recession is truly over and a recovery is underway, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will have the wind at their backs.  Stephen Harper's appearance at the NAC Gala is doing much to dramatically alter the perception people have of him, and in particular, people who have been uncomfortable with Stephen Harper.   The Vancouver Olympics will be another chance for Stephen Harper to look good.

So following along with this line of thought, Michael Ignatieff's poor performance as opposition leader has caused the Liberals to drop in the polls.  By default, therefore, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have risen in the polls.  But at the worst possible moment for the Liberals, that is, when Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are riding high entirely because of Michael Ignatieff's ineptitude, a number of actual positives for the Conservatives are coming into play, which means there is a chance to solidify the advantage that Michael Ignatieff handed to them, and advantage that would normally just evapourate in a month or two.

That would mean that Michael Ignatieff's leadership has allowed conditions to develop in which the Conservatives at 40% (plus or minus two points) and the Liberals at 30% (plus or minus two points) is the new normal for the foreseeable future.

All because of Michael Ignatieff, not Stephen Harper, or so this theory goes.

Like I said, you don't have to believe this to be true, and not everyone does, but clearly some do.  Perhaps a lot of people do.

If those Liberals see Michael Ignatieff as the problem, then solving the problem means getting rid of Michael Ignatieff, right?  According to this logic, the Liberal Party has to topple Michael Ignatieff, and not Stephen Harper, if they want to return to power someday.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 12:02 PM | Comments (11) | Add Comment
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