The Conservatives seem to have settled into the 40% range for support, while the Liberals continue to drop, now showing 25% in the latest poll.

Canadians are not listening to the Liberals at this point, and that is very bad news for Michael Ignatieff.  Now the Liberals face the daunting task of dislodging the Conservatives, not just trying to catch up with them.  The volatility in the electorate seems to be fading.

So how do you dislodge a dug in opponent?  By doing something very dramatic.

I just don't think the Liberals have the guts to do what I propose.

So I've been away for quite some time again.  Delivering training to a customer, multiple sessions a day.  And frankly, the news seemed silly again.  Logos on cheques?  Money not distributed exactly in 1/308 portions to each riding in the country?

Is anyone listening to this stuff?  I wasn't.  According to the latest poll, neither were most Canadians:

A new poll shows support for the federal Liberal party has weakened so much that, were an election to be held today, Michael Ignatieff would lead his party to a worse showing than his predecessor, Stephane Dion, did last October.

"The Liberals, these days, just have no traction at all," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos Reid, which provided its latest results exclusively to Canwest News Service and Global National.

Ipsos Reid did a telephone survey of 1,003 Canadians from Oct. 20 to Oct. 22, a period last week when Liberals were hammering the Conservatives in the House of Commons on accusations that ridings held by Tory MPs were getting more economic stimulus funds than non-Tory ridings. The week also saw Harper concede that it was wrong for two of his MPs to put a Conservative party logo on ceremonial cheques used as props for riding funding announcements.

And the total damage?  Zero.

Maybe some hard-hitting advertisements would help.  They'd be expensive, but what about all that money that is allegedly flowing into Liberal coffers?

Maybe the money is there.  Maybe it's not.  But you would think the Liberals would seriously consider paying good money to hit the airwaves with these scandalous revelations.

Except that maybe Canadians aren't worked up about logos as long as the money is being spent effectively.

And maybe the money is being spent a lot more effectively than the Liberals are letting on.

For me, the Liberal whining went in one ear and out the other.  I really couldn't summon enough interest to dismiss the ridiculous statements by Liberals and their apologists.  Canadians at large don't seem to care either.

Which leaves the Liberals in a terrible position.

It is no longer a case of overtaking the Conservatives in the polls.

The Conservatives have to be dislodged.

In other words, with this latest poll, taken against the backdrop of what Liberals thought was a tough week for the Conservatives, the Conservatives seem to have settled at the 40% mark, while the Liberals continue to wilt.

A good week for Michael Ignatieff won't do much at this point.  The Liberals have to realize this.  Something has to happen to change the underlying facts on the ground.  A ground shift would shake things up, and open up possibilities for the Liberals.

They have tried what they laughingly called a scandal, and have gotten nowhere.  Indeed, they have seen their numbers suffer more.

A real scandal could do the trick, but that would require the Liberals to play a waiting game, hoping for something to happen.  At 25% or lower, how much support would bleed away from the Liberals as they waited?  Would they even be in a position to take advantage of a scandal that might never come?

No, the Liberals have to take the initiative.  They have to do something so jarring and so unexpected that Canadians would notice. Something so stunning that Canadians would get excited, regardless of their political persuasion.  That might dislodge the Conservatives, and make it possible for the Liberals to make up lost ground.

Honestly, at this point, I see only two possibilities. 

One would be to announce plans to merge with the NDP.  But that would require the NDP to play along.  There are too many variables that the Liberals could not control in that scenario.

The other would be to force out Michael Ignatieff as leader.  The polling results would mute the howls from the shrinking ranks of Ignatieff supporters, and a real leadership race would bring positive attention (eventually) to the Liberal Party.

Dump Ignatieff and turn the event into a huge attention draw for the Liberals.  There's my advice to the Liberal Party.  Take it or leave it.  But you know I'm right.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 12:01 PM | Comments (12) | Add Comment
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