Normally, I would have no concerns whatsoever that Stephane Dion will embarrass the Canadian government in Bali, where there is a major UN conference is taking place concerning climate change. The leader of the Liberal Party has taken it upon himself to go to Bali, though it is not clear why. As the leader of the opposition, Stephane Dion cannot speak on behalf of the government or explain government policy. He has promised in the past never to criticize the Canadian government in front of foreign dignitaries.

Indeed, in a recent incident, Stephane Dion had an opportunity to criticize Prime Minister Stephen Harper to a foreign official, and yet he was very careful to avoid doing so.

At the time, I congratulated him on it, and based on that incident, I have every confidence Stephane Dion will not disappoint me this time.

And yet...I'm nervous. There are signs that Stephane Dion is planning to embarrass all of us.

Stephane Dion is winging his way to the conference on climate change in Bali:

The leaders of the Bloc Quebecois and NDP said they want Stephane Dion to hold the government to account when he travels to Indonesia to attend a UN climate change conference this week.

Foreign affairs experts, however, questioned whether it would be appropriate for Mr. Dion to criticize the government on the world stage, and said there could be trouble if Mr. Dion tries to get involved in negotiations.

Thousands of delegates from around the world have been gathering in Bali since Saturday for the two-week conference intended to map the way forward in the world's fight against climate change.

No regardless of what Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton want, Stephane Dion has said in the past he would not do that sort of thing:

"I never, never will speak against my government when I am with international personalities,'' Dion said. (Globe and Mail, June 15, 2006)

He has been put to the test. On the issue of convicted killer Ronald Allen Smith, a Canadian on death row in Montana, Stephane Dion wrote to the Governor, Brian Schweitzer. In his letter, Stephane Dion was very careful not to criticize the Canadian government. In fact, the government and it's position was never raised in his letter.

At the time, I congratulated Stephane Dion for keeping to his word on what was a very emotionally charged issue.

So what will Stephane Dion say in Bali? On this, it is harder to understand what he can say. On the issue of Smith, Stephane Dion delivered a plea to spare Smith's life. That plea did not undermine the government, which said simply it was not pursuing any more pleas. It was not that the government was eager to see Smith executed, or that the government had outlawed people from making such pleas.

When it comes to the environment, though, it's a tough line to walk. Stephane Dion can say he hopes that global warming doesn't become a problem. That's fine. But if, for example, he says Canada ought to sign a treaty even if it doesn't include China and India, then he's contradicting government policy, and that's bad. It is bad for Canada, and it would also mean Stephane Dion was breaking his word:

But Denis Stairs, professor emeritus at Dalhousie University's Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, said while opposition critics are often invited to join a Canadian delegation as a courtesy, opposition leaders generally aren't part of the equation.

In addition, the critics often observe and give feedback to their parties, and the delegation if required. But if a party wanted to criticize the government's actions, "you wouldn't go abroad to do that," Mr. Stairs said.

"I don't think there's anything unusual if he holds his fire until he comes back home," he added. "But he'd be in very dangerous waters if he made representations to others that departed from official government policy because we do have an elected government.

"Whether you like what it represents or not, it is our international representation abroad."

Now I get nervous. For Stephane Dion to write a letter is one thing. For Stephane Dion to show up at a conference is another. His constituency is expecting some sort of results from this trip. Not an environmental treaty, of course, but something of political value. If Stephane Dion shows up in Bali and keeps his mouth shut until he comes back to Canada, then he'll probably survive the trip, politically speaking. But what if he is asked about Canada's position about the sort of treaty the Canadian government would be willing to sign? The right thing for him to do would be to defer to the Canadian delegation led by Minister John Baird, explain that Minister Baird answers questions about Canada's official policy on the environment, and that he is there only to observe. He'd be doing the right thing, but he'd be brutally criticized at home by his supporters.

To me, it seems like this trip is unnecessarily risky for Stephane Dion. You have to wonder just what made him think this was a good idea.

Unless, of course, Stephane Dion is playing to that constituency. Stephane Dion is dropping hints that he's expecting to do more than observe:

For his part, Mr. Dion last Thursday told reporters that as a former president of the Conference of the United Nations on Climate Change, he simply wants "to be sure that the one of Bali will work well."

"I'm not there to negotiate," he added. "I don't have any mandate, but if I may be of any help–we are speaking about the worst ecological threat humanity is facing–I will do my best."

OK, this sounds a bit pathetic. He was the former president for a previous conference. Um, so what? I'm sure the current president has things well in hand. Unless Stephane Dion can produce an invitation from the current president in which he invites Stephane Dion to attend so he help, I have to think the people running the conference aren't all that appreciative of Stephane Dion's desire to be looking over their shoulders.

No, making sure "the one of Bali works well" -- his English continues to grate -- is not Stephane Dion's purpose for going. He's going because he has a high profile in Canada, and he wants to leverage that profile in some way.

Is Stephane Dion hoping for a dust-up with John Baird that would get a lot of coverage in Canada? Would Stephane Dion actually offer up a contradictory position, unprompted, as Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton would have him do? It's possible, but still I can't believe he would do that. That would be breaking his word. People who are already committed to voting Liberal would cheer, of course, as would people committed to hating everything about the Conservatives. Everyone else, and by that I mean average Canadians, would wonder just how trustworthy Stephane Dion really is, as well as what he uses for common sense, since common sense dictates that you don't squabble in front of strangers. It makes Canada look weak and confused. Few Canadians would congratulate Stephane Dion for making Canada look bad in this way.

When it comes to not criticizing the government when dealing with foreign officials, Stephane Dion has always kept his word. It would be shame to wreck that record.

So if Stephane Dion wants to keep his promise, but at the same time doesn't want to look like a failure (again) to other Liberals and potential Liberal voters on Canada's left, he's going to have to hope no one in Bali recognizes him and asks him any difficult questions.

But then he could have simply stayed at home.

And that makes me nervous that Stephane Dion is going to break his word and embarrass himself, his country, and all Canadians.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 11:58 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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