Steve V at Far and Wide has a brilliant analysis of the support for Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion's carbon tax.

I urge you to read it, top to bottom, then consider what it means.

Far and Wide is a blog by Liberal Party supporter Steve V.  Unlike some Liberal bloggers, Conservatives are criticized but not insulted in his blog, at least as far as I have noticed.

In this post, Steve dissects a poll that shows that support for Stephane Dion's carbon tax is going down:

Basically, the Liberals are essentially losing the argument, in parts of the country that frankly aren't part of any Liberal minority equation anyways, so I would factor that into the overall numbers. Elsewhere, more relevant to Liberal fortunes, no need for panic, as the pollster infers. That's not to say no concern, but it's important to see where the dip is coming from.

I'm not particularly worried if the Liberals lose by 45% in Alberta ridings, as opposed to 35% pre-Green Shift, same goes for regions of Saskatchewan where the Liberals were lost to begin with (it's like the Democrats getting worried that Obama is polling lower in Utah). What matters, is the calculus in the areas of the country where they must do well, and if the only province in this category that shows a hint of negativity, Ontario, also comes with a corresponding big lead for the Liberals, which is the bottomline.

Please take the time to read the whole post -- don't rely on my excerpts.  I don't anyone to think I was quoting Steve unfairly or out of context.

Steve's analysis seems spot on, I think.  Yes, support for Stephane Dion's carbon tax overall is going down, but that collapse in support is uneven.  It is most severe in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, mild but measurable in British Columbia, and not really being seen in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.

So why should Liberals feel good about this?

The carbon tax plan is not hurting Liberal chances, Steve argues, where it counts.  In Ontario and Quebec, the base numbers seem good (though in Ontario, there was a rise in 8 points to 43 percent of people who would vote for Stephen Harper specifically to stop the implementation of a carbon tax).

If the Liberals planned to united Canada on the issue of climate change with a plan that is truly designed to benefit all Canadians, this poll should be a concern.

But if the Liberals don't really care about all that environmental nonsense, and just want to get back into power, get their hands back on the levers of power, get revenge on those who conspired to deny them their rightful place, then these numbers are not so bad, as Steve points out.

They show that a tax plan that is perceived to pull money out of Canada's West and redistribute the cash to favoured Liberal constituencies in major urban centres in the East is a vote winner, at least in places where the Liberals are competitive.

Maybe that's why Stephane Dion is adamant that "not a comma" will change in his plan.  The people who are against it are not valued for their votes, but only for their money.  The promise to take their money is what buys votes elsewhere.  Their riding fury at the idea is not a factor in winning a national election, at least not for the Liberals.

The poll shows that the carbon tax is being perceived by many Canadians as a tax grab and they won't support it.  Liberal blogger Steve V says that's just fine, because those Canadians and their opinions don't matter to Liberals.

Still no one mentions anything about the environment.  Funny that.

Posted by: Steve Janke at 06:35 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 636 words, total size 4 kb.